The buzz in Cayman is palpable. Hotels and restaurants are talking of hiring, tour groups are making big bookings, and destination weddings are being planned again. If things go well, we might just be at the threshold of a new age of travel. Although COVID variants may affect conditions, it seems only a matter of time before travelers in some parts of the world are going to spread their wings and take to the skies, thanks to rising vaccination rates and manageable caseloads. Some countries have already begun relaxing travel restrictions and reopening borders.
It’s no secret: people are desperate to travel. Most high-income earners didn’t lose their jobs in the lockdown. In the States, the savings rate among this demographic is 10 to 20 % higher now than before the pandemic, and such people are eager to spend their money on that dream trip. The Cayman Islands’ target market – high income earners on leisure trips – are expected to lead this rebound. This is good news for Cayman’s tourism-based companies, who have suffered huge losses throughout the past 16 months.
As the worst effects of the pandemic ebb, and the number of vaccinated people rise, most indicators point to travel coming back with a vengeance, as people look to reconnect, explore new destinations, or revisit reliable favorites filled with happy pre-COVID memories. We’ve all been locked up for so long, we’ve built up a superbly pent-up demand for adventure. Everyone seems to have their next vacation on their mind.
This demand sounds great for the tourism industry, but ill-prepared countries may find themselves struggling. If the industry doesn’t work with their government towards a clear reopening strategy, the result will be a loss of customer confidence, followed by mass cancellations, and irreparable damage to the long-term relationship between the customer and destination.
Globally, there appears to be two different trajectories of how travel will bounce back, with some countries that have near-zero caseloads choosing one path, and countries with manageable caseloads and higher vaccination rates choosing another.
Despite the almost universal desire to travel, countries will likely manage their plans to reopen differently, based on two main factors: current COVID caseloads and vaccination rates, and they are forging two clear paths, or strategies, for tourism:
Path #1 or Strategy OPEN UP – Manage the cases, keep hospitalisations and deaths low.
We can expect a huge surge in travel in countries with manageable and moderate COVID-19 caseloads and vaccine access. These regions are willing to accept rising case levels, as long as the death and hospitalisation rates stay minimal. In most European countries and the United States, a significant portion of the population has been inoculated. Such people feel safe enough to travel both domestically and internationally, especially with the introduction of safety measures such as the EU-issued digital health certificates given to vaccinated people. Despite fluctuating rates of new caseloads in these regions, the efficacy of the vaccine so far (to reduce the spread of the disease and avoid its worst effects) gives many people enough feeling of security to travel.
Countries in Europe that have become used to living with manageable caseloads have begun to welcome visitors without asking them to quarantine: Iceland (March 2021), Cyprus (May 2021), and Malta (June 2021). In addition, Europe, is open to vaccinated US travelers, and the UK plans to drop quarantine for vaccinated EU and US tourists.
We are on the brink of seeing travel demand soaring once travel restrictions are eased and freedom of mobility returns.
Path #2 or Strategy STAY CLOSED – Domestic trips will support travel in near-zero countries
However, a slightly different picture is emerging for countries with near-zero caseloads. Countries in this group include Australia, China, New Zealand, and Singapore. Their governments face a difficult dilemma. To open up national borders without quarantines will almost certainly lead to increased local transmissions of COVID and an increase in new cases. This is a concern in countries with low vaccination rates, such as Australia and New Zealand. If they choose to continue imposing strict restrictions and quarantine measures until the pandemic has truly passed, which will deter all but the most determined of travelers, they can retain their near-zero status. Unlike places that have adjusted to living with COVID, even a moderate increase of cases in countries with caseloads near zero would likely be unacceptable to the public.
Governments of these countries will encourage increased interest in domestic travel, especially for large countries with sizable home markets, such as Australia and China, which have traditionally been net exporters of tourists. The staycation revenue may not match the tourism revenue of pre-COVID days, but it should be enough to keep local businesses profitable.
Travel bubbles are also a possibility for these near-zero countries. Mainland China, for instance, has been allowing citizens to travel to and from Macau without quarantine requirements. Hong Kong and Singapore have also restarted negotiations on a potential travel bubble between the two cities. The key is establishing common standards and trust in the participants in the travel bubble, and proximity helps too.
Cayman’s Path
Our islands are in a unique position of having near-zero cases that give us a relatively relaxed and healthy lifestyle, due to imposing strict quarantine restrictions on any arrivals, which would suggest we are better suited to Path #2: Strategy Stay Closed.
However, due to our geographical location, we are reliant on countries who are on the other path: the Strategy Open Up trajectory. If we don’t open up to the US and Europe soon, travelers on our side of the world will find alternative destinations to satiate their overwhelming thirst for sun, sea and sand.
Countries on Path #2 are generally large countries that offer diverse and enticing staycation options to their domestic market. Their governments continue to offer real support to businesses and workers in the tourism industry, while buying time for the vaccination rates to catch up with countries on Path #1. They also all benefit from geographical proximity, allowing the possibility of a travel bubble to be a safe, yet lucrative, option to open up to further to their near-zero neighbours.
Cayman has no such neighbour to partner with in a ‘bubble scheme’. Nor do we have a low vaccination rate, nor support from the government for the hospitality industry, as reason for a meaningful delay. Cayman doesn’t fit as comfortably on the Path #2 trajectory as it might at first appear. And yet, it seems, we are also reluctant to take Path#1. So what is the reason behind this indecision?
The issue we have is fear. The tentative and confusing Cayman Islands Reopening Plan announced by the CI Government proposed reopening in five stages. Yet it requires that 80% of the total population must be fully vaccinated before even Stage 3 can be entered, setting a bar that has only been achieved by one country – Malta – to date. When the Cayman Islands Tourism Association pointed out that the 80% target is impossible to achieve because of the large number of under 12-year-olds who cannot be vaccinated, the Government refused to reconsider. If 80% is unachievable, Cayman is doomed to failure. Cayman’s plan says ‘open up’, yet ‘stay closed’, all at the same time. Confused? You should be. This strategy smacks of doubt and trepidation. And the decision-makers have reason for their uncertainty: many Caymanians are unaffected by the lack of tourism, and are vocal about wanting to keep their environment COVID-free. To say that a return to mask-wearing and social-distancing will receive an icy reception from the public is an understatement.
But indecision is unhelpful. In times of crisis, indecision is dangerous. This isn’t the time for people pleasing, this is the time for a clear strategy. Now is the time for decisiveness from leaders with a long-term vision. Cayman needs to set boundaries of what is, and what isn’t acceptable, within achievable goals. If the goal truly is to open up, then there needs to be legislation to incentivise the vax-shy to get vaccinated. One idea is could be to adopt Macron’s successful French Health Pass, that essentially says ‘no jab = no fun’. If the goal is to keep the borders closed, there needs to be real support for the struggling local businesses who are being asked to hold off a little longer. A clear re-opening plan – with achievable targets – is the only way to allow local tourism businesses to proactively prepare for the travel boom that’s coming.
If we don’t make the decision soon as to which path we are on, local businesses won’t have a clear plan to follow, and Cayman might just miss out on the impending travel boom altogether.
Which path are we on, Cayman?
You are a genius. Not only do these strategies work, but you make them so plain and easy to follow. Great writing. I think that’s the fastest I’ve read anything in my life. You made me want to keep reading. Rare; trust me