Day 64

 

Freedom is on the horizon, so close you can almost smell it.

Today in the CI: 0 new cases, 140 total cases. 67 recovered. Those are numbers worth celebrating. 

Tomorrow we learn if we may be able to move to Level 2 suppression on Monday. And then, the long-awaited Level 1 is imminent. We will not only be able to smell, but taste…… freedom! The ultimate reward for our good behavior. For doing what we were told, to stay indoors and do our part to collectively control the virus.

And so when the time comes, and we may savour freedom, what will it look like? I for one cannot wait to hug friends as they they were family, get in the car and drive where I please, when I please, and let the kids invite whomever they want to come visit, and stay as long as they like. Churches will open their doors, boat days will resume, small retail businesses will be more than a delivery service. It’s going to feel good, that’s for sure!

But how long will this new found exhaltation of freedom last?

There is an experiment where monkeys, after performing a required task, are given a cucumber as a reward. They are delighted; satisfied with their compensation. Until they spy other monkeys, in an adjacent cage, earning grapes as a reward for the same task. Within seconds, the first monkeys are throwing their cucumbers at the scientists in disgust, angry that they did not also get grapes. How long before we are no longer satisfied with our renewed freedom? How long before we recall the ‘normalcy’ of life before lockdown, and have a hissy fit, that we want grapes, not cucumbers? When will we want more?

Our Cayman Islands are currently on a trajectory to be a model of perfect performance in this imperfect situation. Our government made swift and firm decisions, and our people obeyed. Now it looks like we could genuinely enjoy a return to normal life in our little bubble, floating in the Caribbean Sea.

If our islands could be one of the few countries that didn’t need to lock down anymore, and had eradicated the virus, what then does our economic future look like? The answer is: still dire. Because all our trading partners are in trouble. We would still expect a bad recession. Now layer that notion with the incalculable outcomes on the lockdown, and you have a multiplier. We – as a planet – are in this together, whether we agree or not, whether we have managed to locally control the virus or not.

Our planet’s only solution is a vaccine. 

But making one that’s effective and safe enough to be delivered to millions of people is exquisitely complicated and time-consuming. Experts estimate it could take 12 to 18 months, or even longer. Then there are two other major avenues we can pursue, and researchers are hard at work on both of them: tests and treatments. Right now, we’ve got three different types: molecular tests, antibody tests, and antigen tests. Another way would be to invest heavily in the army of contact tracers that will be needed as part of any massive testing program. There are a few different types of treatments in development. There are antiviral drugs, which inhibit the replication of the virus. Remdesivir, for example, has already been given to some Covid-19 patients, showing some early promise, but more rigorous study is needed to determine its true effectiveness. Another option is manufactured antibodies – similar to what your body would produce in response to the virus but created in a lab. Scientists are also working on another strategy: gathering convalescent plasma – the liquid part of blood – from Covid-19 survivors. 

None of these options is likely to be a silver bullet. But a combination – antibodies to prevent healthy people from getting sick, treatments for those who are already infected, and widespread testing to identify who’s infection-free — could make it safer for people to socialize and freedom to return to closer to the normality we know and miss.

The answers are likely to be not in one strategy, but many strategies that, when layered on top of one another, offer a greater degree of protection than we have right now.

And then, we may smell, taste and truly see a version freedom that we desire. And then, we might stop throwing our cucumbers out of our cages.

freedom is near

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